California's 13th Congressional District has flipped from Republican to Democrat, and with that race settled, we now know that the Republicans yet again hold the slimmest of majorities in the House — 220 seats to Democrats' 215.
Democrat Adam Gray has won the seat by a mere 187 votes at last count, and the Associated Press projected Tuesday that he will win. He beats incumbent Republican John Duarte, following a similarly tight race two years ago in which Duarte prevailed by just 564 votes, as KCRA reports.
Duarte conceded to Gray on Tuesday, as the Turlock Journal reported, with Duarte telling the paper, "I'm a citizen legislator, and I didn't plan on being in Congress forever."
California's 13th District is in the Central Valley and encompasses all of Merced County, as well as most of Madera County, and parts of Stanislaus, San Joaquin, and Fresno counties. The district is 66% Hispanic, with around 784,000 people, and its current composition is fairly new — the 13th District used to be the one led by Barbara Lee that included Oakland, but it was moved to the Central Valley in 2022 amid redistricting.
With the departures of Matt Gaetz (bye!), Mike Waltz, and Elise Stefanik, the latter two of whom are set to join Trump's cabinet, and special elections to fill their seats months away, the Republican-led House will likely have some bruising fights ahead getting any votes passed until then, and even after those seats are filled.
As ABC News notes, with 217 seats, votes taken when anyone is absent due to illness or any other reason could fall in Democrats' favor. And even if every single congressperson shows up for a given vote, a single Republican member could gum the works and threaten to vote with Democrats, creating a 216-216 tie. Or if even two Republicans abstain, the nays will have it.
Republican Speaker of the House Mike Johnson is of course trying to spin this positively, telling ABC, "Well, just like we do every day here, we've developed an expertise in that. We know how to work with a small majority. That's our custom now. So, yes — do the math. We can, we have nothing to spare. But all of our members know that we talked about that today, as we do constantly, that this is a team effort that we've got to all row in the same direction."
There are also a couple of elderly members on the Democratic side who missed votes last year, and that could happen again, as ABC News notes, giving Republicans a bit more wiggle room until those special elections occur.
Gray, for his part, struck a tone of unity on Tuesday. The Merced native told the Turlock Journal, "As divided as people suggest the country is, I think we all have a lot more in common than we’re given credit for. People do want change, but the change they want is for Congress to get back to solving problems. … They don’t want people yelling and screaming at each other. That’s not the kind of leadership people want. They want a government that works for them."
Well, prepare for some yelling and screaming, Adam, because this Congress is going to be seated in during a no-doubt unhinged second Trump administration, and with a barely-there Republican majority that could be thwarted if Marjorie Taylor Greene wakes up in a bad mood that day. Good luck.
Photo from Adam Gray for Congress via Turlock Journal