A day after BART was touting rising ridership numbers and a drop in crime, the transit agency is warning the public that its much discussed "fiscal cliff" is set to arrive in 2026, absent new funding sources.

You may have thought BART was doing alright these days. Last year, the agency received a rider satisfaction rating over 80% for the first time in decades, and they just raised fares another 5.5% to address ongoing budget woes.

BART also received a $350 million bailout from the state in 2023, as part of a larger $1.1 billion transit bailout. And at the start of the pandemic, the agency received around $2 billion in emergency funding from federal, state, and regional sources. But because BART has run for decades on a budget that relied heavily on fare revenue, with ridership still nowhere near pre-pandemic levels, that leaves the agency with an ongoing deficit and the potential for major service cuts.

But still, officials say, that looming fiscal cliff is coming in the spring of 2026, with fare revenue now only covering 25% of operating costs, when prior to the pandemic it covered 70%. And they lay out some possible scenarios for how such a major deficit could be addressed, as KRON4 reports.

These include one-hour spacing between trains on a particular route — something that would kind of defeat the purpose of being a commuter rail service — shutting down entire lines or stations, and/or stopping service every night at 9 pm. Other cuts could lead to the shutdown of weekend BART service altogether, and mass layoffs.

With Donald Trump trying to find every possible way to punish blue states, Democratic cities, and liberal institutions, it doesn't seem like any sort of federal funding will be forthcoming. (Though, interestingly, BART applied for a $1.25 billion federal grant during the first year of the first Trump administration, and they won it in 2019, allowing them to pay for new trains and increase capacity in the system.)

State Senator Scott Wiener and state Senator Aisha Wahab (D-Fremont) are planning to reintroduce a bill this year which would put a 30-year regional tax measure on the 2026 ballot to help fund BART and other struggling transit agencies. SB1031 passed the California Senate last year, however it faced major hurdles with some transit agencies, including San Jose's VTA, pushing back on details of the measure.

The fact that SB1031 did not pass has meant that other agencies besides BART, including the SFMTA, have begun implementing service cuts. Cuts on Muni lines have so far been limited to weekends on certain lines, but more cuts could be on the way. The elimination of cable cars is one possibility that was floated last year.

Previously: Still Facing Major Budget Deficit, BART Raises Fares 5.5% Starting In January

Photo by Jonathan Herman