As retailers flee the dying, anchorless SF Centre mall, it looks like it could be Union Square's gain.

Without Nordstrom or Bloomingdale's there, and absent a deal to bring in another anchor tenant to fill the vast, empty retail spaces in the SF Centre mall, it seems like the exodus of other retailers from the mall will only continue. And that may spell good news for Union Square, which still has a bunch of prominent vacant retail spaces to fill after an exodus that occurred there five and six years ago.

The Chronicle reports today on what could be a trend, with high-end menswear brand John Varvatos inking a deal to return to Geary Street, seven years after it left and opened a store in the mall instead. John Varvatos has leased the former Alexander McQueen store at 58 Geary Street, just a block up from its former digs at 152 Geary, which it abandoned in 2018.

A rep for the Varvatos brand tells the Chronicle, "Coming back to Geary Street feels important for the brand and exciting for the team."

Other retailers like Zara and Shoe Palace, which have had a presence in the SF Centre mall for years, now have set their sights on Union Square — and the future of their duplicate mall locations is unknown. Zara just announced plans to open a huge, new four-story flagship store at Post and Powell next year, moving up the street from its current location, which could end up making the mall location redundant. (In the past, retail brokers tell the Chronicle, this kind of duplication was common because the stores appealed to different demographics, just like Tiffany's formerly had a mall location selling lower-priced jewelry than their Union Square store.)

And H&M's decision to close their big Powell Street store mid-pandemic while maintaining their presence at the SF Centre now looks a little misguided. The company also has a location at Stonestown Galleria — which by comparison has been thriving the last several years and has become more of an Asian American mall both in its food and retail offerings.

Could H&M be the next brand to make a comeback in Union Square?

There is still a lot of vacancy on Powell Street and elsewhere around the square, but that could change quickly.

"J. Crew should be here. Coach should be here. Hugo Boss should be here. Now is the time because pretty soon those spaces will fill up," says Union Square Alliance CEO Marisa Rodriguez, speaking optimistically to the Chronicle.

But she could be right. If what retail employees were saying in recent weeks is true, about how decimated the foot traffic at the mall has been, brands could be looking to make a fast exit to street level, where foot traffic seems to be rebounding.

The only wild card still in the mix is the future of Macy's, which essentially serves as an anchor for the Union Square shopping district and has for almost 80 years. Macy's announced its intent to close this 400,000-square-foot store in February 2024, saying that it was looking to offload the building from its real estate portfolio. There have been rumors of interested buyers, but none has emerged with any for-certain deals so far, and we don't know what sort of background begging and pleading has been going from the city.

Also, with Neiman-Marcus having been acquired last year by the parent company of Saks Fifth Avenue, the Hudson Bay Company, and the Union Square Saks store still hobbling along with a skeleton staff and an appointment-only model, the future of that Saks location looks far from certain.

Nevertheless, Shoe Palace and Zara appear to be betting that the long-term health of the shopping district is secure, and others may follow.